• UNSC assessment reveals some senior Taliban members increasingly view TTP as a liability, others remain supportive
• Report says border closures estimated to cost Afghan economy around $1 million per day
• Monitoring body says Al Qaeda has ‘blended itself with TTP’, with or without Taliban acquiescence

ISLAMABAD: A United Nations Security Council report has rejected the Taliban’s claim that terrorist groups are not using Afghan territory for cross-border violence, calling the assertion “not credible” and warning that neighbouring states increasingly view Afghanistan as a source of regional insecurity.

The assessment is contained in the sixteenth report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team, submitted to the UN Security Council, as international concern grows over Afghanistan’s security landscape more than four years after the Taliban returned to power in August 2021.

“The de facto authorities continue to deny that any terrorist groups have a footprint in or operate from its territory. That claim is not credible,” the report said.

The Taliban had pledged under the 2020 Doha Agreement to prevent Afghanistan from being used to threaten other countries. While following their return to power in Aug 2021, they have aggressively targeted Islamic State-Khorasan Province, or ISIL-K, their stance toward other terrorist groups has been markedly different, according to various UN assessments.

The latest report said “a wide range of member states consistently report that ISIL-K, Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Al Qaeda, the Eastern Turkistan Isla­mic Movement, also known as the Turkistan Islamic Party (ETIM/TIP), Jamaat Ansarullah, Ittiha­dul Mujahideen Pakistan, and others are present in Afghanistan. Some groups have used or are continuing to use Afghanistan to plan and prepare external attacks.”

Al Qaeda is assessed by the United Nations as maintaining close ties with the Taliban, with a persistent presence in several provinces. While its activities are kept low-profile, UN monitors say the group benefits from a permissive environment that allows training and reorganisation. By contrast, ISIL-K is considered the Taliban’s primary adversary. Taliban operations have degraded its territorial control, but the group has remained resilient, carrying out attacks inside Afghan­istan and abroad.

The most acute threat to regional stability, however, is seen as the TTP, which the UN report describes as enjoying strong support from elements within the Taliban and operating from Afghan sanctuaries.

“Taliban authorities continue to deny and deflect responsibility for failing to restrain TTP,” the report said. “Within the Taliban there are varying degrees of sympathy for and allegiance with TTP.”

“Some senior members increasingly view TTP as a liability, unnecessarily disrupting and antagonising relations with Pakistan, while others remain supportive of it,” the report said. Assessing the likelihood of the Taliban severing ties with the group under Pakistani pressure, the report said, “Given the historical ties, the Taliban are unlikely to confront or act against TTP.” It added, “Even should they wish to, they may lack the ability to do so.”

According to the report, the TTP has conducted “numerous high-profile attacks in Pakistan from Afghan soil”, making it the most serious immediate challenge to relations between Kabul and Islamabad.

“The number of TTP attacks in Pakistan has been increasing throughout 2025,” the report said. “By some estimates, there have already been more than 600 attacks in Pakistan in 2025.”

It added that “many attacks have been complex in nature, involving multiple, coordinated attackers using methods such as vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices, combined with teams of suicide attackers on foot”, and noted that “a majority of those conducting suicide bombings in Pakistan were reported to be Afghans”.

Pakistan has long accused the Taliban of harbouring TTP fighters, estimated by the UN report at about 6,000. These TTP fighters are said to be living in Afghanistan provinces of Khost, Kunar, Nangarhar, Paktika and Paktia with the group’s chief Noor Wali Mehsud, reportedly living in Kabul.

An unnamed member state was said to have reported that the family of Mehsud received a monthly payment of three million afghanis (roughly $43,000) from Taliban.

The dispute over the presence of TTP in Afghanistan has severely strained ties between the two neighbours, though the Afghan Taliban were once considered to be closely allied with Pakistan.

“These attacks have led to cross-border military confrontation, causing a number of casualties, as well as disruptions to bilateral trade,” the report said. “At the time of writing, in addition to the loss of life, the closure of border crossings with Pakistan is estimated to cost the Afghan economy around $1 million per day.” The monitoring team said TTP has expanded its targeting.

“In January, TTP issued a new directive expanding targets of its attacks to include military-owned businesses,” the report said, “thereby significantly escalating its focus on the economic interests of the military of Pakistan and of Chinese enterprises in Pakistan.” It also pointed to cooperation between TTP and other terrorist groups.

Despite the broader militant presence, the report noted some counterterrorism progress made by Pakistan.

“There have also been a number of high-profile arrests by the Pakistani authorities, such as the arrest of an ISIL-K spokesperson, Sultan Aziz Azam, on 16 May 2025,” it said.

“Overall, the capability of ISIL-K has been degraded as a result of counter-terrorism operations by the de facto authorities and Pakistan,” the report added, noting that “the arrest in mid-2025 by Turkish and Pakistani authorities of Ozgur Altun, known as Abu Yasir al-Turki, a key figure in the group’s media and logistical operations, may have contributed to the suspension of ‘Voice of Khorasan’.”

On Al Qaeda, the report said, “In March 2025, Osama Mahmoud was formally declared ‘emir’ of AQIS. He comes from Bajaur district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.”

Zaki Abbas also contributed to this report

Published in Dawn, December 18th, 2025